eNews Weekly Update - National Association of Credit Management
April 8, 2008

News Briefs

  1. APG Warns of Suspicious Activity in the Chemical Industry
  2. Fraud on the Examining Table
  3. Senate Considers Increasing Reporting Requirements for Credit Card Accepters and Processors
  4. Paulson's Financial Blueprint in Play
  5. House Democrats Call for Stricter Enforcement of Trade Laws
  6. Is It or Isn't It?
  7. IASB Releases 2008 XBRL Taxonomy for IFRS
  8. SBA Seeks Public Comment on Proposed Lender Credit Risk Rule
  9. U.S. Dairy Exports Grow in 2007, More Likely in 2008
  10. World Bank Notes Export Shifts

Upcoming Events


1

APG Warns of Suspicious Activity in the Chemical Industry

Date: April 1, 2008
Company: Varitek, LLC
Address: 9595 Wilshire Blvd., Ste. 900
Beverly Hills, CA 90212

-----and-----

595 Grand Avenue, Ste. F 102-134
San Marcos, CA 92078

Contacts: Pat Garcia
Industry of Target: General
Reasons: Inquiry for suspicious activity.

***APG requests that anyone having information on this entity contact us.***

line

Date: April 1, 2008
Company: G.W. Catastrophe Services, LLC
Address: 8750 Corporate Drive
Lexington, KY 40503

-----and-----

4536 Birchman Ave.
Fort Worth, TX 76107

-----and-----

7940 Michigan Rd., Ste. 9
Indianapolis, IN 46268

-----and-----

6350 Glenview Dr., Ste. 103
North Richland Hills, TX 76180

Phone: 317-872-7228 [Indianapolis, IN location]
561-686-5960
866-744-9228
Contacts: George Wade Hicks, Principal
Industry of Target: General
Reasons: Vacated Lexington office leaving no forwarding information; unsuccessful collection attempts; moderate five-figure loss confirmed.

***APG requests that anyone having information on this entity contact us.***

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2

Fraud on the Examining Table
It's estimated that as much as $652 billion is lost each year to fraud. That figure represents an astounding 5% of the U.S.'s annual $13 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP), and according to the most recent Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) 2007 Internet Crime Report, $240 million was reported lost to crimes perpetrated over the Internet.

There's no question that scams can be a booming business.

Of the cases of fraud reported each year, 20% result in losses of $1 million, while nine of the 1,000 cases reported to the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) resulted in more than $1 billion in losses. But beyond just a monetary hit, the impacts of fraud can be more damaging, tarnishing a company's image, affecting employee moral and crippling the careers of the company's leadership.

"A corruption scandal may taint a company and will be hard to shake," said Cheryl B. Hyder, CPA, CFE, CVA, Dubinsky & Company PC. She presented the basics of forensic accounting at an NACM teleconference entitled, "Introduction to Fraud Examination." "There can be a fine line between error and fraud. But there is no 'accidental' fraud."

Hyder established the fraud triangle where opportunity, pressure and rationalization are the foundation for all fraudulent ventures. For credit managers, financial statement fraud is one of the most infrequent forms of deceit, but is often one of the most costly. There were 120 cases of fraudulent statements reported to the ACFE's 2006 Report to the Nation on Occupational Fraud & Abuse. But the median loss was $2 million, which was 10 times more than the losses occurred from asset misappropriation and four times that of simple corruption.

Common financial statement fraud includes the overstatement of assets or income, an understatement of liabilities, fictitious revenue, a lack of transparency or disclosure, as well as timing or classification issues and misreporting of inventory. Hyder recommended that credit managers maintain vigilance and be aware of warning signs such as changes to "soft accounts," an increase in payables over time without an increase in sales or receivables and other balance sheet items that should set off alarm bells.

She also suggested that if a credit manager suspects fraud, they should gather evidence and report the matter. Individuals trained in dealing with and investigating fraud should also be included.

"The first thing you want to do when you get financial statements is check for completeness," said Hyder, explaining that incomplete documents are a standard warning sign. "Establishing proof is not the same as practicing law. Intent is rarely obvious since fraud is designed to be concealed."

Matthew Carr, NACM staff writer

Your Comments Needed!

IRS Comment Window Still Open for 3% Withholding Measure

Over the past year, NACM has informed you that on January 1, 2011, a mandatory 3% withholding measure on the value of most contracts for goods and services sold by businesses to federal and state governments, including local political subdivisions with contracting expenditures of $100 million or more, will go into effect. NACM opposes this 3% withholding measure because it will adversely impact businesses, place an undue burden on the already-squeezed cash flows of many small- and medium-sized businesses and further weaken the U.S. economy, which depends a great deal on jobs and growth created by the business community, including the small and medium-sized businesses that are responsible for the majority of new job creation.

The IRS is now requesting comments about this mandatory withholding. NACM urges you to email Notice.Comments@irscounsel.treas.gov with your comments. Be sure to include "Notice 2008-38" as the subject line.

You can also send a letter in opposition to the 3% withholding measure to:

CCPA:LPD:PR (Notice 2008-38)
Room 5203
Internal Revenue Service
Ben Franklin Station
P.O. Box 7604
Washington, DC 20044

Please act quickly! The comment period closes on April 25, 2008.

For your convenience, click here for a sample letter.

Learn more here.

3

Senate Considers Increasing Reporting Requirements for Credit Card Accepters and Processors
The Senate Finance Committee recently released a bipartisan discussion draft of President Bush's proposal to expand reporting requirements for banks and other entities involved in reimbursements to merchants that accept electronic forms of payment, specifically credit and debit cards. The proposal, if approved, would go into effect in 2010, falls in a long line of governmental efforts to reduce the nation's $345 billion tax gap, representing the annual amount of taxes legally owed but never collected.

Banks and processors who enroll merchants in a program that allows them to accept electronic payment mechanisms will occasionally distribute reimbursements to the merchants. These reimbursements might go easily unreported and, thus, could be contributing to the tax gap. According to research offered by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), underreported income accounts for up to 80% of the annual tax gap and it was also noted that amounts subject to more stringent reporting requirements are more likely to be reported and reported accurately.

In its current state, the proposal would require banks to provide an information return to both the government and the participating merchant in question. However, as the proposal has not yet been finalized, certain suggested changes could require the merchants to bear the brunt of the regulation and file the information report regarding the reimbursements themselves.

Information reporting on payment card reimbursements has been recommended by the Administration, the U.S. Treasury and the IRS as a way to make a dent in the tax gap and increase voluntary compliance with the tax code.

The staff of the Senate Finance Committee has encouraged public comment on the matter including issues related to which electronic payment mechanisms would be part of the proposal, whether all merchants should be included in the proposal and which party should be required to file the information report. Copies of the bipartisan staff discussion are available here.

The comment period closes on April 30, 2008.

Jacob Barron, NACM staff writer

NACM's April Survey

Have you received a preference claim for $5,000
or less since the passage of the BAPCPA in 2005?

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You may also click on the upper right-hand survey ad at www.nacm.org.

4

Paulson's Financial Blueprint in Play
In his brief tenure, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has had to face the fact that he inherited an unenviable economic situation. Nonetheless, he has sought to bring his ideas for making the United States more competitive in the global marketplace to fruition, with his overhauling Blueprint for a Modernized Financial Regulatory Structure now preparing to take the Congressional stage. The Blueprint was announced in June 2007 after a blue-ribbon panel was set up in March 2007 at the Capital Markets Competitiveness Conference. For the most part, the idea is simple: trim away the fat and duplicative infrastructure of the current regulatory scheme, while beefing up the power and influence of the Federal Reserve Board.

"We should and can have a structure that is designed for the world we live in," said Paulson. "One that is more flexible, one that can better adapt to change, one that will allow us to more effectively deal with inevitable market disruptions and one that will better protect investors and consumers. The challenge is to evolve to a more flexible, efficient and effective regulatory framework—and that is the purpose of this Blueprint."

The Treasury's reasoning for the facelift is that the current system is several decades out of date. It is comprised of five federal depository institution regulators, in addition to another layer of supervision at the state level. There is only one federal securities regulator, with state-based and self-regulatory organizations aiding in overseeing securities firms. And there is just one federal futures regulator, while insurance regulation is solely state-based with over 50 regulators and no international dimension to the oversight. With how modern markets operate, Paulson wants these aspects to be changed.

"The bulk of these regulatory responses made sense at the time they were created," explained Paulson. "But as we look at today's financial markets, the lack of a comprehensive design is clear."

Paulson's Blueprint recognizes that the current system can't be modernized overnight, but can be tweaked in a series of steps. It calls for short-term recommendations, like creating a new federal commission for mortgage origination and updating the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, as well as clarifying the Federal Reserve's liquidity provisioning. In the intermediary, the Blueprint wants to eliminate some of the duplication of the existing regulatory system by merging the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) into a single business conduct regulator, while creating an optional federal charter for insurance. The plan's long-term goals would be to create an entirely new regulatory structure using an objective-based approach. It also recommends imbuing the Federal Reserve with the far-reaching title of "market stability regulator," giving it the power to "go wherever in the system it thinks it needs to go for a deeper look to preserve stability," meaning the Fed's oversight would no longer be limited to banks. The Blueprint also recommends creating a prudential regulator, much like the Office of the Comptroller of Currency that combines all bank charters into one charter to ensure the soundness of institutions with federal guarantees.

"I am not suggesting that more regulation is the answer, or even that more effective regulation can prevent the periods of financial market stress that seem to occur every five to ten years," said Paulson, adding, "One of the most constant aspects of American life is change and nowhere is it more evident than in our financial markets. If private institutions don't change, they become obsolete. Our regulatory structure also needs to change and evolve to one which will stand the test of time."

Overall, the Blueprint has received mixed reviews. Most have had serious doubts to the legitimacy of increasing the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve.

Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), chairman of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, called Paulson's Blueprint seriously flawed. He reiterated his belief that housing and foreclosure were the biggest issues facing the nation at the moment, and that the Fed was at least partially to blame for that. "On the one hand, it would allow the Fed to examine all financial companies—not just banks—to be sure that they are not posing a threat to the overall financial system," posed Dodd.

"On the other hand, it fails to realize that the Fed helped create this crisis by ignoring the red flags as far back as five years ago. It does not make sense to give a bigger shovel to the very people who helped dig us into this hole."

John Berlau, director of the Competitive Enterprise Institute's Center for Entrepreneurship, agreed. "To propose, as the Blueprint does, that the Fed can examine any business that poses a threat to the financial system would result in an unacceptably broad jurisdiction. Many small entrepreneurs may suddenly find themselves at the Fed's mercy."

But, Berlau, like many others, felt that the merging of the SEC and the CFTC, with Sarbanes-Oxley still on the horizon, would help eliminate redundancies and would ultimately be a benefit.

Matthew Carr, NACM staff writer

Credit Leadership

Company executives understand that sales generate revenue, but a great many number of them might not be fully aware of the impact that cash flow management has on the organization's financial stability and opportunities for growth. For this reason, the relationship between a company's sales staff and its credit staff can often be strained. To learn more about overcoming differences and building a mutually beneficial relationship between departments in your company, be sure to dial in to NACM's next teleconference, "Credit Leadership," presented by Susan Archibeque, CCE. Susan's presentation will give you the skills necessary to be a successful credit leader by evaluating and addressing challenges in your credit department, your sales department and the entire company overall. Understanding the different personality traits, and gaining a better understanding of the daily challenges your peers and upper management face, will change the way you are perceived and give you and your department the respect and backing you deserve.

For more information, or to register, click here.

5

House Democrats Call for Stricter Enforcement of Trade Laws
A letter sent to the White House by Senior House Democrats regarding the annual National Trade Estimate (NTE) report encouraged the Bush administration to take a stricter approach to enforcement of trade laws with several prominent U.S. trade partners in order to maintain export performance, while decreasing the nation's ever burgeoning trade deficit and creating a more sustainable global economy. Last year the U.S. trade deficit was $711.6 billion, the third highest in the nation's history and over 5% of the U.S. economy.

"Many of the cases raised in this year's NTE highlight barriers that have been persistent and long-standing problems for U.S. exporters, investors and service providers for years," said the letter. "Yet these problems have not been effectively addressed."

"We encourage the Administration to move past merely inventorying the systemic, recurring trade barriers that U.S. companies face, and to take a positive step forward and begin enforcing U.S. rights more vigorously," added the signing officials. Fourteen prominent Democrats, including House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-NY), signed the letter.

"In a global economy, the negotiation of rules and agreements is important; however, without strong enforcement, the value of those agreements is significantly reduced," the letter noted. As testament to the Administration's lax enforcement policy, the letter added that during the Bush-era, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has only brought an average of less than three World Trade Organization (WTO) cases per year. The Clinton Administration, by contrast, brought an average of 11 WTO cases per year.

According to the letter, the manufacturing sector has been hit hardest by the U.S. trade deficit with the sector's exclusive trade deficit having increased by over 80% between 2001 and 2007. During that same period, the sector has also lost over three million jobs, according to the letter. "Contrary to administration claims, the trade deficit does not reflect strictly low-cost, low value-added imports," they added. "During this time, the trade balance for advanced technology products shifted from a $4.4 billion surplus in 2001, to a deficit of $53.5 billion in 2007."

Included with the letter was an appendix outlining each of the most persistent trade problems and proposed courses of action. "Americans deserve a trade policy that holds trading partners to the bargain negotiated and produces real results for the U.S.," said the letter.

For a full copy of the letter and the aforementioned appendix, visit the House Ways and Means Committee's website: http://waysandmeans.house.gov

Jacob Barron, NACM staff writer

Do Your Homework

When a company decides to export, its hope is that cross-border sales will expand profits or, in some cases, shore up sinking domestic profits by increasing sales in other untapped markets. Businesses can use all sorts of methods and instruments to insure their investment and gain a competitive edge, but one invaluable tool across the board, one that might not be so easily taught and studied, is the ability to connect with a customer across lines of culture, language and tradition to form a mutually beneficial business relationship. Cultivating an effective international relationship takes time, dedication and preparation, but almost always pays out in the long run.

For more information on building profitable global business relationships, read this article in the April 2008 issue of Business Credit. Click here to get your subscription started now

 

6

Is It or Isn't It?
It's becoming a tired question at this point: Is the United States heading for a recession or is it currently suffering through one? No doubt, there is most likely a fairly equal number of people who are overly pessimistic of the U.S.'s economic situation, as well as those that are blindly hopeful. And with unemployment numbers hitting a two-year high in March and the country's growth stagnating, the debate isn't likely to end anytime soon.

"Although the situation has recently improved somewhat, financial markets remain under considerable stress," testified Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. "Pressures in the short-term funding markets, which had abated somewhat beginning late last year, have increased once again."

Bernanke continued his and the Fed's mantra of "It will be necessary to monitor the situation carefully." He spoke before the Senators about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reducing the federal funds rate to 2.25% at its March meeting and pointed out the moves the Fed has made to improve liquidity, such as the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and initiating the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). All of this has been an attempt to counteract the snowball effect of lenders being more reluctant to take risks and have been increasing the amount of collateral they are requiring for short-term securities. In turn, this has made investors skittish and has led them to take a step back and start liquidating their holdings in securities, adding more downward pressure to a devalued area mired in the subprime mortgage backlash.

"These developments in financial markets—which themselves reflect, in part, greater concerns about housing and the economic outlook more generally—have weighed on real economic activity," explained Bernanke. "Overall, the near-term outlook has weakened relative to the projections of the FOMC at the end of January."

The Senate Banking Committee has also been up in arms about the $30 billion the Fed scrounged together to help avoid the outright collapse of Bear Stearns.

A day earlier, before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke testified that though a recession was possible, the expectations for 2008 were not completely dour.

"It now appears likely that real gross domestic production (GDP) will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly," said Bernanke. "We expect economic activity to strengthen in the second half of the year, in part as the result of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies; and growth is expected to proceed at or a little above its sustainable pace in 2009, bolstered by a stabilization of housing activity, albeit at low levels, and gradually improving financial conditions."

He did admit that because of the recent turmoil in the financial markets, most notably the bottoming out of Bear Stearns, any predictions were subject to considerable risk of being inaccurate. He said that the FOMC will not be as aggressive in cutting rates in the year ahead, content to wait and see the results of the actions it has already taken. In the end, the question of recession remained in the air.

"Clearly, the U.S. economy is going through a very difficult period," stated Bernanke. "But among the great strengths of our economy is its ability to adapt and respond to diverse challenges. Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place, and monetary and fiscal policies are in place that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year. I remain confident in our economy's long-term prospects."

Matthew Carr, NACM staff writer

"It was an unhappy report…"

So said Daniel North about the Credit Manager's Index report for March. The combined index has fallen below the crucial 50 level, indicating an economic contraction. "The data tell a definitive story of a shrinking economy and the significant challenges facing credit managers." Are we in a recession? What will the April numbers tell? How will your company compare?

Keep tabs on your sector. Participate in the CMI and read the results the first business day of each month. Click here to sign up and be automatically notified of the monthly survey period.

7

IASB Releases 2008 XBRL Taxonomy for IFRS
The oversight body of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), also called the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC), recently announced the release of the near-final version of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Taxonomy 2008, a complete conversion of the principles of IFRS into the eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL), a digital, online markup language that allows information in financial statements to be more easily filed, analyzed and compared.

XBRL is fast becoming the new standard for filing and accessing public company financial statements both globally and domestically. In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has offered a test program for filers and continually worked to update the system in hopes of making its use mandatory in the future.

This most recent IFRS Taxonomy is the first to have undergone an extensive external review by the XBRL Quality Review Team, established by the IASC at the end of 2007 and comprised of financial statement preparers, regulators, banks, financial institutions and software companies.

"XBRL is rapidly becoming the format of choice for the electronic filing of financial information—particularly within jurisdictions reporting under IFRS," said Gerrit Zalm, chairman of the trustees for the IASC. "The publication of the near final draft of the 2008 IFRS Taxonomy marks and important step in bringing XBRL into the mainstream of financial reporting," added Olivier Servais, the IASC's XBRL Team Leader.

Parties interested in accessing the most recent form of the taxonomy have been invited to peruse it and send comments by May 30, 2008. A final version will be released in June 2008. For more information, visit www.iasb.org/xbrl/taxo.asp.

Jacob Barron, NACM staff writer

Free WAWF Training for Contractors…and More!

GBG LogoDFAS Columbus Customer Service Open House
May 14, 2008 (8:00am–4:00pm)
Contractors and vendors are welcome.

Click here for conference highlights and to register.

8

SBA Seeks Public Comment on Proposed Lender Credit Risk Rule
The Small Business Administration (SBA) recently announced a three-week series of public meetings in an effort to receive comments from interested parties on the agency's recently proposed lender oversight/credit risk management rule, which, if implemented, would figure credit risk into the agency's future lending decisions. Furthermore, it would incorporate a regulatory framework for SBA-certified lenders of 7(a), 504 and microloan lenders and enhance the ability of the SBA's Office of Credit Risk Management to manage credit risk as related to lender performance while also enforcing the requirements of specific lending programs.

The proposal was originally submitted in October of last year. A comment period was extended on December 20, 2007 through February 29, 2008 and the current collection of meetings is another effort by SBA to further involve the public in the rulemaking process. However, by the arrival of the press release on April 3, 2008, half of the meetings' registration closing dates had already passed.

"We are committed to transparency and there is no better way to demonstrate it than soliciting public participation in the rulemaking process," said SBA administrator Steve Preston. "SBA considers these meetings a valuable component of its deliberations. Providing a mechanism beyond the single written round of notice and comment will enable the SBA to better understand the views of the public and will assist us in assessing and refining the proposed rule."

For more information on meeting dates and locations and submitting comments, visit the SBA's website at www.sba.gov.

Jacob Barron, NACM staff writer

Top 10 Ways to Get the Most out of Credit Congress

10. Prepare your goals in advance.
Make sure you know what you want to gain from Credit Congress.

9. Explore the conference schedule.
Don't forget the social events!

8. Prepare your "elevator speech."
This is your quick introduction.

7. Stay at a conference hotel.
This year, it's The Galt House, the Hyatt Regency Louisville and the Marriott Louisville Downtown.

6. Dress for success!
Books may be judged by their covers!

5. Hand out those business cards.
And, conversely, collect as many as you can.

4. Make notes about your key conversations.
Jot them down on the back of your networking buddy's business card!

3. Reflect on your conference experience.
Remember what you didn't get a chance to do last year and make it happen this year!

2. Look at the CDs available for purchase.
The CDs will contain most of the sessions.

And the most important step in gaining all you can from attending Credit Congress...

1. Commit to keeping in touch with all the new contacts you made at the conference.
Networking is vital in the business world.

9

U.S. Dairy Exports Grow in 2007, More Likely in 2008
Other key exporters may pressure the market
U.S. exports grew by 24% and accounted for 11% of total U.S. dairy production in 2007, according to a new Rabobank report.

According to the recent report, "U.S. Dairy Ag Focus," the international market is becoming increasingly important for the U.S. dairy sector. "In 2007, dairy prices on the international market increased to unprecedented levels," said Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Managing Director Deborah Perkins.

Exports increased 24% by volume and 59% by value over 2006 with approximately 1.4 million metric tons valued at $2.9 billion being exported in 2007. Mexico, Southeast Asia and Canada account for the three largest destinations for U.S. dairy exports in 2007, making up about 60% of the export market.

"If production growth continues to exceed that of domestic consumption, as is forecast for 2008, exports are going to become increasingly important to the ongoing profitability of the U.S. dairy sector," said Perkins. "The share of production being exported has increased from 5% in 2002 to approximately 11% in 2007. Historically, exports have been assisted by government support, but the recent growth has been based on commercial merits."

Since 2002, global demand for dairy products has been increasing nearly 3% annually compared to a production increase of less than 2%. This imbalance of supply and demand resulted in a drawdown of stocks. However, it wasn't until early 2007 that stocks were depleted, and by later that year, prices had increased by up to 150% year-over-year depending on the product.

"The prices of all products were trading at record levels, some by a considerable margin, enabling the United States to be competitive on the world market in products such as butter, skim milk powder and whey," said Perkins.

However, international prices began to come down falling between 3 and 15% from their peak in November 2007 to February 2008. In the medium term, there could be further moderation in prices depending on domestic demand in key import regions. "Even so, international prices are expected to remain above their traditional trading levels with volatility in prices being more pronounced," said Perkins.

One of the reasons that the U.S. dairy sector has looked at increasing its dairy exports, is a surplus of milk. For the last three years, milk production has grown more than 2% annually, but demand has grown less than 1.5%. In the coming year, production is forecast to increase by at least 2% again—due, in part, to additional cows and increased production per cow.

"To counter the difference between supply and demand, the dairy sector should take a two-fold approach," Perkins said. "To address weakness in domestic demand, the dairy sector should continue educating consumers that dairy is an important component of a healthy lifestyle. Additionally, in terms of exports, the industry needs to change its view from simply a convenient way to dispose of surplus to a more focused portion of business operations in order to be successful in the long term."

Source: Rabobank America

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10

World Bank Notes Export Shifts
The down U.S. economy and the weak dollar have started to combine to affect the patterns of global trade, especially for the fast growing markets in Asia. For the past couple of years, the problems that have affected the U.S. economy have been forcing some subtle changes regarding who is selling to whom. The U.S. exporter has become more active as the dollar has weakened and new export records have been set almost every month despite a burgeoning trade deficit prompted by the high costs of oil importation. The U.S. market has also become less attractive to global exporters as the weak dollar has made products from other nations more costly in the U.S. That process has been accelerating over the last several months and few analysts expect to see any significant shift in that pattern over the next few years. The most significant shift in trade patterns has been taking place in Asia and these changes will have immense implications in the not-so-distant future. For the past decade, it has been perceived wisdom that the Asian export based nations would live and die by U.S. consumer demand. It was assumed that a recession in the U.S. and a drop in consumer demand would be almost immediately reflected in a decline in their economies. Indeed, that was clearly the case with Japan in the 1990s. This time the U.S. downturn has barely affected most of the Asian states and economic growth has continued.

An analysis from the World Bank shows that these countries have adjusted very quickly to new market realities—rebounding from a 15% annual export growth rate in the third quarter of last year to 19% in the last quarter. In January of 2007 the level was at 22%. The majority of the shift has been from the U.S. market to other Asian states and to Europe. This trend is very likely to accelerate in the months to come.

Armada Strategic Assessment
The impact this shift will have on overall global trade is likely to be long lasting and profound. The U.S. export community will continue to find opportunities in Asia and Europe, allowing the trade deficit to erode at some point (provided oil prices fall some day). The growth that has projected East Asia to the forefront is not likely to deteriorate to the extent that some had predicted and that means continued demand for commodities from this region. The engine of world growth is now being shared more equitably between the U.S., Europe and Asia. The decline in the U.S. is allowing these markets to assert themselves and this means that the shifts will become more entrenched. Europe is already showing some signs of growth that is being exploited by the Asian exporters and the growth in internal markets in China, India, Korea and elsewhere means that many companies have found insulation from the vagaries of the U.S. market. The focus on trade between the Asian economies and the western states will begin to alter as intra-Asian trade expands. The U.S. is not losing its place in the world as a consumer nation, but it is now clear that it will have rivals and that changes a great many equations.

Source: Armada Corporate Intelligence