The National Association of Credit Management's economic report for February 2013 depicts a stalled economy. Political and economic concerns appear to weigh more heavily on the manufacturing sector, while data from the service sector shows progress.

Columbia, Maryland: February 28, 2013—The National Association of Credit Management's (NACM's) Credit Managers' Index (CMI) for February is exactly the same as it was in December—54.9. This is just slightly better than it was in January when the index fell to 54.6. For all intents and purposes, the readings suggest that the economy has stalled. The interesting movements are in the individual factors where there is actually some better news overall. The favorable factor index is up to just below where it was in November, at 59. This is a slight improvement from January, and the gains occurred in important factors.

Columbia, MD: February 1, 2013—The January report of the National Association of Credit Management's (NACM's) Credit Managers' Index (CMI) marks its 10th-year anniversary of providing financial professionals, economists and policymakers with a startlingly accurate forecasting tool.

Since its inception in January 2003, the CMI's methodology has undergone a number of revisions, but never stopped being an immensely powerful economic predictor. In 2007 it was even able to tip analysts off to the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, showing a noteworthy decline in October of the same year.



Throughout the recession, the CMI reflected a remarkable sensitivity to the intricacies of the economic downturn, and resisted the month-to-month swings that characterized other economic indicators. Eventually it anticipated the recession's end as well, showing signs of market stabilization and nascent growth as early as February 2009, while the actual recession came to an end four months later in June.



HB 2198 Would Create New Problems, Fail to Fix Small Business Concerns

Columbia, Maryland – February 14, 2013: A bill in the Virginia House of Delegates would create new problems throughout the commercial credit industry while failing to address the concerns of Virginia's small businesses, according to the National Association of Credit Management (NACM). The bill, HB 2198, sets up a lose-lose proposition for businesses well beyond the borders of the "Old Dominion."

HB 2198 was recently forwarded to the Virginia Small Business Commission and would, among other provisions, require commercial credit reporting agencies to identify the source of any negative commercial information. It is a move that would immediately reduce the amount of information available to commercial trade creditors; information that helps determine a customer's creditworthiness. Open, accurate reporting of trade credit information, without fear of retaliation, is necessary for businesses to offer the financing to other businesses that drives America's business economy.

The National Association of Credit Management’s (NACM) CMI for January 2013 signals a transitioning economy.

Columbia, Maryland: January 31, 2013—On the surface there appears to be little change this month. The shift in the Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) was very minor, falling from 54.9 to 54.6. On closer examination there was a lot going on, reflecting that the economy is essentially in a transition mode again. The last time this kind of variety appeared in the National Association of Credit Management’s (NACM’s) index of ten factors was during the months that preceded the slide into recession in 2008. For every sign that things were deteriorating, there was a part of the index that looked solid and unaffected by the impending crisis. Now that transition is showing again, but this time it seems to be pointing in the other direction. For every factor that suggests the economy is still in the doldrums, there is one or two that point to better days ahead.

To begin with, sales improved to 58.6, which may be the most positive sign of all. For eight of the prior 12 months, the sales number had been over 60. That started to reverse in September 2012 when it fell to 59.5, with the worst occurring in December when sales fell to 56.7, a level not seen in over a year. Now it has rebounded and, while not in the 60s yet, it’s headed in the right direction.

Columbia, Maryland: December 28, 2012—As it did in October, the Credit Managers' Index (CMI) from the National Association of Credit Management (NACM) slipped again this month, from 55.2 to 54.9. The most dramatic movement was in sales, which plummeted to 56.7, a low last seen in December 2009 and almost a full point lower than in October 2012. This reinforces the notion that business is stalled out in anticipation of what might happen with spending and taxation next year. There was some cautious optimism just a month ago, but that optimism has evaporated, as it seems all but certain that there will be no settlement of lasting value on the "fiscal cliff."